From many sources, we confirmed the negative growth of power generation for Otc and also Oct. industrial production (VAI) growth forecast and mkt consensus (11-12%) faces downside risk; the actual no. could be below 10%, showing the economy deteriorate markedly.
Event:
It is rumored that power generation growth might decline 0.46% YoY in October, though the National Bureau of Statistics and China Electricity Council have not released the official data.
Our Comments:
We believe the October power generation growth might still be in a downtrend, mainly due to the declining power consumption and output of the downstream sectors like ferrous metal, chemicals, nonferrous metal and nonmetal. The October power generation may even suffer a negative growth against the backdrop of significant decrease in outputs of these sectors. In the long term, the monthly power generation growth should stabilize as the sharp decline of generation growth and capacity shutdowns for major downstream power consumers are not normal.
1. Ferrous metal, chemicals, nonferrous metal and nonmetal consume 12%, 9%, 8% and 6% of total power in China. The consumption decline for these sectors also drags the power consumption by the power generators (14%). These are the main culprits of the downtrend of monthly power generation. Compared with the situations in September, the shutdowns of some capacities for these sectors have not improved significantly. In our view, this is the primary culprit of the anemic growth in October power generation. According to our communications with relevant sector analysts, the October outputs have not been announced so far. Therefore, we can not deduce the real situation of October power generation based on the performance of downstream sectors.
2. The power generation growth refers to the growth in gross power generation, thermal power generation and hydraulic power generation. Gross power generation is directly correlated with the power consumption of the real economy. In summer, hydraulic power generation should seize more market shares, and the thermal power generation may be dampened.
3. Historically, October power consumption always declines 1~2ppt MoM as October is a typical dull season of power consumption. However, November and December power consumption may increase MoM given the heating season in winter.
关于10月份电量增速的传闻，我们的观点是：从下游电量消费情况判断，10月份，单月发电量增速仍呈下降趋势，主要源自于主要用电行业：黑金属，化工，有色和非金属产量、用电量增速的持续回落。在上述行业产量急剧恶化的情形下，单月发电量增速可能出现负增长。长期来看，我们认为发电量增速快速回落、尤其主要用电行业集中出现关停产能的现象并非常态，长期的月度发电量增速将维持在稳定的水平。
1、黑金属，化工，有色和非金属四个行业占我国电力消费总量的比例依次为：12%，9%，8%和6%。这四个行业用电量下降直接带动另外一个用电大户——发电行业本身的用电量（占全国电力消费的14%）下降。从而共同推动单月发电量呈下降趋势。与9月份相比，上述四个行业的部分产能关停的现象并没有显著改善，我们认为这将直接导致10月份电量增速仍不理想。与相关研究员沟通，10月份的产量数据尚未公布，目前，仍难以从各行业推断出10月份电量下降的真实状况。
2、官方（统计局、中电联）的数据一般在15日前后公布。目前，我们尚无法得到任何正式公布的关于10月份的电量数据。
3、发电量的增速有三个:总体发电量，火电发电量和水电发电量。 总发电量和实体经济的电力需求直接相关，在夏季水电多发，水电会抢占市场份额，火电发电量增速会受到影响，反之，如果来起到了一定的调节作用。
4、历史经验来看：10月份是传统的用电淡季，一般10月份的电量会较9月份出现环比下降1-2个百分点。而伴随冬季取暖季节的到来，11、12月份的电量会出现环比上升。
我们会密切关注相关电力信息，及时跟大家update.
 pj9iKXOW.zip (28.83 KB)
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发表于 2008-11-11 15:59
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