公司研究*雅戈尔：评论：网络报道——雅戈尔被指错误涉足地产导致短期负债高筑，审
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">近期市场有一些传言（根据新浪网报道）<wbr></wbr>认为雅戈尔由于涉足地产行业导致资金链紧张，短期负债高筑，<wbr></wbr>并忽视了服装主业的发展。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">评论：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif';"></span></p><p style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 7.8pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">总体来看，这些说法未能从房地产行业属性、公司资产总量、<wbr></wbr>各板块盈利贡献拆分等方面客观的反映其基本面实质，<wbr></wbr>我们对雅戈尔的评价不变。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">我们认为：雅戈尔的资金链没有出现任何问题，<wbr></wbr>公司的负债水平在合理范围内，且中信证券等金融投资变现能力强，<wbr></wbr>更加巩固了其资金链；分红方面，公司已承诺不低于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">30%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">的分红，<wbr></wbr>而且近几年均在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">50%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">左右，高分红收益率有望保持。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"></span></p><p style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 7.8pt; MARGIN-LEFT: 36pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><span>1）<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">净负债率</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">61</span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">％，与众多主要房地产公司相比处于低位，<wbr></wbr>且公司会持续卖房回收资金。</span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">作为一家涉足房地产且房地产</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><wbr></wbr>年净利润可达到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">7.7</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿元的公司而言，不负债是不可能的，<wbr></wbr>雅戈尔目前负债总额确实比较高（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">74</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿元短债，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">27</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿元长债，<wbr></wbr>其中</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">20</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">多亿元用于购买部分金融资产，<wbr></wbr>其余基本为房地产业务所用）。但银行借款只占其总资产的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">345</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿<wbr></wbr>元的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">29%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">，净负债率仅为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">61%[</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">净负债率＝（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">101</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿负债－</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">2<wbr></wbr>1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿现金）</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">/130</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">净资产</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">]</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">，总体资产负债率为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">62.5%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">（<wbr></wbr>总负债</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">/</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">总资产），流动比例</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">>1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">。从负债额和各负债比率来看，<wbr></wbr>低于大多数主要房地产公司。同时，公司土地款已基本付清，<wbr></wbr>没有这方面的压力。目前房屋销售情况正常，<wbr></wbr>四季度还会有现金回笼。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"></span></p><p style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 7.8pt; MARGIN-LEFT: 36pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><span>2）<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">短期可变现资产较多：</span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">公司目前拥有现金</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">21</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿元（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">3Q08</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">17</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><wbr></wbr>亿元＋截至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">11</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">11</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">日第四季度减持中信证券税后约</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿元），<wbr></wbr>可供出售金融资产近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">90</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿元，存货</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">102</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿元（<wbr></wbr>多为房地产相关存货），偿债能力较强。此外，公司的厂房、<wbr></wbr>办公楼等资产均以原始成本价计入报表，多年以来，已经明显升值。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"></span></p><p style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 7.8pt; MARGIN-LEFT: 36pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><span>3）<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">我们在公司总体重置价值计算中（</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">12.03</span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">元</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">/</span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">股，表</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">1</span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">），<wbr></wbr>已将银行负债在房地产业务</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">NAV</span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">中扣除</span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">，因此已考虑到了负债对其</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><wbr></wbr>NAV</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">的递减作用，而且还总体给予了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">15</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">％的多元化折扣。<wbr></wbr>其重置价值低于目前的总市值。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"></span></p><p style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 7.8pt; MARGIN-LEFT: 36pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><span>4）<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">并非如传言所说的公司只赚到了投资金融资产的收益，<wbr></wbr>其服装和房地产业务近年来均获得了好的提升。</span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">依据</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">前三季<wbr></wbr>度的业绩，我们预计公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">年的净利润可达到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">28.6</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿元（<wbr></wbr>每股</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">1.28</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">元，前三季度</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">0.97</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">元，表</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">），同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">15.<wbr></wbr>5%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">，其中：房地产业务同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">177</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">％至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">7.7</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿元，<wbr></wbr>纺织服装业务增长</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">28</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">％至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">5.9</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿元，减持金融资产获得</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">15</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">亿元<wbr></wbr>。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"></span></p><p style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 7.8pt; MARGIN-LEFT: 36pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><span>5）<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">高分红收益率有望保持。</span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">首先，公司的银行借款均为滚动负债，<wbr></wbr>并没有大的还款压力。此外，公司还会有房预售的回款。按</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">40</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">％<wbr></wbr>股息支付率计算，公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">2009</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">年分红收益率可达到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">6.<wbr></wbr>8%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">7.4%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">（表</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">），若能够</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">50</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">％分红，则有望更高。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"></span></p><p style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 7.8pt; MARGIN-LEFT: 36pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><span>6）<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">能够顺利过冬。</span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">公司纺织服装业务稳健发展，多涉足国内市场，<wbr></wbr>应该能够顺利度过此轮经济下行周期；<wbr></wbr>房地产类公司的资金链是其生存发展的重要保障，<wbr></wbr>而雅戈尔雄厚的金融资产储备为其房地产业务过冬打下了坚实的基础<wbr></wbr>。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"></span></p><p style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 7.8pt; MARGIN-LEFT: 36pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"><span>7）<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;">雅戈尔对其金融资产的减持是必然的，只要公司主业稳健发展、<wbr></wbr>较高分红得到实施，减持并不会给其基本面带来负面影响其基本面。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%;"></span></p><p><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"> </span></p>[attach]10318[/attach]<br/>页:
[1]