[20081112]Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (SPC) and Sinopec Yizheng Chemical F
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (SPC) and Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fiber (YCF) surged sharply by daily limit following the opening of the afternoon session. In the H-share market, SPC advanced 13% and YCF rocketed 43% before the close of the morning session.<br/> <br/>According to our communication with SPC, the company indicates that its fundamentals remain unchanged, and rules out the possibility of privatization by Sinopec. Sinopec is not available for any comments.<br/> <br/>We believe the unusual prices movements might primarily due to: <br/> <br/>1. Market speculation; <br/>2. Increasing shareholding in SPC-H and YCF-H by their parentco (Sinopec). Before the surge, P/B ratios of both companies stand at 0.5x. Although two companies are incurring losses, their valuations are not expensive.<br/>3. Privatization: In our view, this is very unlikely, mainly because: 1) Privatization might dilute EPS of Sinopec as both subsidiaries are suffering losses; 2) Valuations of SPC-A and YCF-A are expensive, and the price spread between A-shares and H-shares are large; 3) Sinopec falls short of cash, though the condition of cash flow should improve in 4Q08.<br/> <br/> <br/>下午开盘A股的S上石化和S仪化迅速封住涨停，而H股午市前上海石化上涨13%，仪征化纤上涨了43%。 <br/> <br/>我们联系到了上海石化，公司称基本面没有变化，而且对私有化的可能性也进行了否认，认为属于投机炒作。由于是否私有化由中石化决定，我们试图联系中石化，但是联系不上。<br/> <br/>我们自己的分析有三种可能： <br/>1. 投机炒作，反正现在也没什么好炒的。股价是H股先涨起来的，A股是跟涨，交易量还不是很大。 <br/>2. 不排除母公司（中石化）增持H股股票。上涨之前，两家公司的市净率均在0.5倍左右，虽然亏损，但是也不是很贵。 <br/>3. 私有化。我们认为这种可能性最低，问题有三：（1），目前两家公司都亏损，私有化将带来对中石化业绩的摊薄；（2），A股还很贵，AH价差很大；（3），中石化缺钱，尽管四季度现金流有所缓解，但是仍然很紧张。页:
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